By JP Gambatese (@JP_Gambatese)
Things are quiet around the New Jersey Devils (and the entire league) right now despite there still being moves to be made.
With that, it’s a prudent exercise to see how they compare to the other teams in their division, at least on paper.
Let’s jump right into it, going position by position.
Forwards
I don’t think it’s in question that the Devils have the best forward corps of any team in the Metropolitan Division.
The fact is, they have the two best forwards in the entire division in Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. True game-breaking talent is a rarity at the NHL level, and having two such players is even more of a rarity. Few players in the league can do what they do with the puck, and they’re stylistic unicorns.
At his best, Jack is a top five player in the game. He was the second-highest producing player in the league after the Olympic break, and it stands to reason that with a full off-season without injury recovery and with growing confidence will serve him extremely well in continuing along that trajectory.
Bratt, meanwhile, is a top-15 winger in the game, and seems likely to take a jump in production with a presumably healthy season of Jack.
Arguably, Nico Hischier is the third-best forward in the division, too, though I understand arguments that place Sebastian Aho, Mathew Barzal, and Seth Jarvis at or around him in terms of his impact on the game.
Statistically speaking, Hischier has the highest xGAR of any player in that group in the past three years, so there is certainly a case to be made his deployment impacts his production and actual GAR far more than his individual talent.
No Metropolitan Division team can say those things about their high-end talent, even if the likes of the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes are incredibly deep.
Both of those teams have more complete four-line rosters up front than the Devils do, but the combination of game-breaking talent and improved depth serves them well on the whole and ultimately makes them the most dangerous forward group in the division.
Defense
On paper, this is where the Devils struggle a bit.
New Jersey legitimately lacks a #1 defenseman, something that every team in the division can claim with the exception of the Carolina Hurricanes, who have four #2/3 defensemen instead.
Dougie Hamilton used to be that player, but the reality is that he looks more like a solid #2 than a true #1 at this point in his career.
Luke Hughes, meanwhile, has yet to take that jump, even if he seems poised to with his raw talent, microstatistics, and power play aptitude.
The other issue with the Devils’ defense corps is that they severely lack puck movers outside of their top two defensemen.
It’s the same issue that plagues the Penguins and the Flyers, both of whom rank right around where the Devils are in totality (despite both having a bona fide #1 in Erik Karlsson and Travis Sanheim, respectively).
Brett Pesce is a fine puck mover – he’s more of a complement to a top-four puck-mover than one himself.
Outside of him, none of Brenden Dillon, Johnathan Kovacevic, or Jonas Siegenthaler move the needle in the slightest.
It’s been shown that just about every Cup contending team has a legitimate puck mover on each defensive pairing, and it’s an area the Devils lack.
Perhaps Declan Chisholm can be that third-pair player, but on paper right now, he’s the seventh defenseman for New Jersey rather than a regular.
It’s possible that the Devils’ defense ends up better in practice than on paper, given that each of their blueliners is entering the season healthy.
Kovacevic will be fully recovered from his ACL injury, Pesce will be setback-free, and Luke is having the first non-problematic entrance to the season since his rookie campaign.
As of right now, though, they look like a bottom-four team in the division in terms of their overall defensive outlook.
Goaltending
The Devils are seemingly likely to roll with a three-goalie rotation featuring Jake Allen, Nico Daws, and David Rittich.
It’s likely that Allen sees the majority of the starts unless Daws develops well over the course of the season, which should be received as good news considering just how solid Allen has been since joining the Devils.
In the last two seasons, there have been 45 goalies to log at least 60 games. Allen ranks 10th in GSAx per game, signaling just how good he has been as the Devils’ backup.
It’s pretty likely that Daws and Rittich combine for average goaltending in their own regard, so, on paper, the Devils should be getting league-average-at-worst performances in net barring some setbacks or injuries.
The problem with stacking them up against other teams in the division is that, well, the Metro is home to four of the 10 best goalies in the entire league.
Between Jet Greaves, Logan Thompson, Ilya Sorokin, and Igor Shesterkin, there is plenty of in-division talent to go around between the pipes.
Even past those four, the Flyers just had a heckuva season from Dan Vladar and the Hurricanes got adequate goaltending from their projected tandem.
The only team that is seemingly set to receive poor goaltending is the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Relative to the league, the Devils’ goalies should be fine. Relative to the division, though, they are firmly in the bottom half.
Overall, the Devils’ strength up front automatically makes them one of the best rosters in the division.
While their defense lacks puck-moving talent and a true #1, they have the potential to be better than their on-paper lineup seems.
Any team with average goaltending will stack up well with a lineup like that in front of them.
All told, it would be a surprise if the Devils weren’t in the top two or three of the Metro. It’s playoffs or bust for this team.
Great write up. Really enjoy them. The only squabble I have is right now, though we have added depth, we really don’t have a legit top 6 shooter to pair with Jack. Bratt is awesome and I love him. He can do it all, he’s responsible away from the puck and is dynamic with it but Jack hasn’t had someone who can really put the puck in the net and ride shotgun with him since Toffoli. Imagine the top 6 or even how Jack and Bratt’s offensive stats and analytics would look like if they legitimately had someone who reliably put the puck in the back of the net on their line.