G82 New Jersey Devils vs Detroit Red Wings: The last dance
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A few notes to get you set for the New Jersey Devils’ season finale:
A glimpse of the future
Alexander Holtz is a very good prospect who is rightfully getting a look after ripping it up in the AHL this season. In saying that, his NHL play left a lot to be desired early in the season and he didn’t exactly rectify things in his first game back.
Holtz was given top line minutes alongside Jesper Bratt against a watered down, but still potent, Carolina Hurricanes team. He did not handle them well.
At 5v5 Holtz put up a 34 xGF%, was out-scored by a pair, and attempted but one low-danger shot. He didn’t do much of anything with the puck on his stick and looked very jittery without it. Simply put, his positioning felt erratic. It was like he was a step behind, always racing to try and get to the spot it already seemed he should be.
One game is one game but the holes we were concerned about in the past still appear to be there.
The good news is Holtz does have undeniable strengths. His shot might well be the best in the organization and, when on, I think he can also beat teams as a passer.
Nolan Foote didn’t look good a few games ago but he settled in and started to figure out how to play to his strengths more effectively.
Let’s hope that Holtz can do the same vs a putrid Red Wings team. He’s not a finished product, and that’s fine, but he doesn’t need to be to contribute and give fans a reason to be excited.
Another edge at full-strength
There is bad, and then there is Detroit Red Wings at bad. They’re playing some truly miserable hockey to finish out the season.
Their 5v5 xGF% over the last 10 games sits at 39% and that has translated on the scoreboard; they’ve been outscored by 10 in that time.
Such poor differentials stem from a complete inability to defend. No team has given up more Grade A chances during that period.
For all their faults, New Jersey is still coming out ahead in the chance department more nights than not. Their xG share is above 50% despite key absences like Jack Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler.
They should have a clear advantage during 5v5 play. I expect that to be even more evident tonight as they try and put the misery behind them and finish the season on a high note in front of the home fans.
If that’s the case, the Devils should be well on their way to two points. Even a meh performance from Mackenzie Blackwood probably wouldn’t be enough to override a winning effort if the Devils carry play as they should.
The kids are alright
I love, love, love, what we’ve seen from Fabian Zetterlund and, more recently, Nolan Foote.
Zetterlund has hounded pucks since the day he was recalled. He wins so many battles in the corner, gets to the net, and generates shots in bulk. He has nine scoring chances at 5v5 over the last two games. Nine!
As mentioned prior, Foote seems to be coming along as well. He has three primary points over the last three games and only Bratt and The Thigh Godâ„¢ have more scoring chances in that time.
What’s encouraging is his on-ice impacts have been strong. The Devils have controlled ~60% of the xG with Foote on the ice.
It’s only a few games, sure, but Zetterlund and Foote have looked great on a line with Pavel Zacha.
It definitely leaves reason to be optimistic one, if not both, of them can claim a job next season and be a meaningful contributor in the bottom-6.
I expect another good showing from this trio against Detroit.
End on a high
This season couldn’t have gone worse for Mackenzie Blackwood. He got into a rift with the team about vaccinations, lost a ton of games, posted horrendous numbers, and was essentially called out by the coaching staff while (understandably) struggling to get results playing through injury.
He was supposed to be the 1A for a playoff caliber team. Yet the Devils were out of the mix by November and it took until Game 80 for Blackwood to appear in a game while feeling healthy. Yeah, things were that bad.
The good news is Blackwood said after his return start that his heel was not a problem.
While he was far from perfect, he did make some quality stops and looked a lot more fluid and explosiveness than the version we saw earlier in the season.
I don’t think anybody is putting a ton of stock into one game but it would still be great for all parties if he could put forth a good effort in this one.
It could give Blackwood confidence heading into the off-season and show himself, the Devils, and potentially other teams, that the injuries are behind him and he’s ready to go moving forward.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
With what Walsh, Ohktiyuk and Bahl, have done (small sample sizes I know) in their cups of coffee here, would you entertain the idea of keeping one of them for the 3rd pair next year and trading Ty Smith while he still may have some value to upgrade elsewhere?
Zacha has helped carry the the 2 kids. Facts.