G7 New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers: Do or die

It all comes down to this. The winner punches their ticket to take on a banged up Hurricanes team in Round 2. The loser goes home.

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A few notes to get you set for Game 7 of the Hudson River rivalry:

Time to step up

It’s not often a team finds itself in a Game 7 despite getting little to no production from most of its star players. That’s the situation the Devils are in tonight.

The Devils have controlled the run of play with each of Timo Meier, Nico Hischier, and Jesper Bratt on the ice. In fact, they rank 1st, 2nd, and 3rd among Devils forwards in terms of xGF%. They have all generated a healthy chunk of scoring chances, too.

Largely, this trio has played well. Very well, even. But their strong underlying process doesn’t much matter if it doesn’t lead to any results.

And the abundance of chances they’ve created has led to absolutely nothing when it comes to filling the net.

Let those numbers sink in for a moment. Three top line caliber talents – all of whom shot at least 12% during the regular season – have not scored a single goal on 57 shots, 38 Grade A opportunities, and 7.12 expected goals.

Outside of Jack Hughes, these are the players on the team you would most expect to outperform their xG outputs. And more than 7 expected goals have translated into exactly zero.

Now, hockey is an 18 skater sport. It’s not all on those three to score. But I have a hard time believing the Devils can win a 4th game against a goaltender of Igor Shesterkin’s caliber without them breaking through.

If these guys aren’t going to finish their chances, there isn’t much reason to expect the lesser players on the team to do so.

I think Game 7 will by and large come down to this group. If they can find a way to finish plays off, and chip in a goal or two, the Devils will be in great shape.

Should they (again) fail to capitalize on what will undoubtedly be a healthy chunk of chances, the Devils will likely be done until October.

Feed Timo

Timo Meier has averaged ~2 fewer minutes per game in this series than he did during the regular season. I’d like to see that change; Meier deserves to play a lot in this do or die game.

Forget about what he did in the regular season. Forget about his goal scoring reputation. Forget about everything in the past; we’ll focus only on this series.

Meier has been on for more shot attempts, high-danger chances, and expected goals than anybody on either team. It’s not even close in most cases.

In terms of expected goals, for example, the Devils have generated more than 4.0 per 60 minutes with Meier on the ice. Nobody else in the series sits above 3.40.

Meier hasn’t just been a bystander. He has been the driving force behind all of those numbers. In fact, he leads all Devils with 58 primary shot contributions at 5v5.

I know Meier hasn’t scored. I know Meier doesn’t even have a point. But the best way to score goals is to generate shots and chances; and the Devils have done a better job of that with Meier on the ice than anybody else.

Don’t overthink it because Meier hasn’t garnered results yet. With what we’ve seen through six games, he is perhaps the most likely to get them in this game; and that’s what matters most.

Stay out of the box

If the Devils win this series, I will honestly try not to talk about this subject for the entirety of the next round just for the hell of it. It’s annoying harping on the same thing over and over and I imagine you all feel the same way reading it. But that doesn’t make it any less true.

The Devils absolutely have to stay disciplined tonight. Anything more than a couple minors – refs tend to put the whistles away in elimination games – is a recipe for disaster.

New York has scored five power play goals over the span of their three wins. They have scored zero power play goals over the span of their three losses.

The Rangers are heavily reliant on the power play; especially against such a strong 5v5 side like the Devils. That’s why the Devils can’t afford to take penalties.

Keeping New York’s power play off the board is extremely difficult. And if they score a goal or two, the Devils have no margin for error at 5v5. They can’t just hold their own; they have to dominate.

That’s not ideal when everybody is giving 400% and there’s little room to move, which is what we’re likely to see in a do or die game for both teams.

Jack Hughes said the Devils need to cut out the silly penalties and he’s right. We’ll see if they can go out and do it.

Quick hits

• If the Devils find themselves trailing and need a go, I’d watch for Damon Severson to take on a much bigger role. He ranks 5th among Devils defenders in 5v5 ice per game yet still leads the way in 5v5 shot contributions (and involvement percentage). He’s a key to unlocking the offense.

• As mentioned the other day, I think the Devils should load up the Hughes line (aka give him Meier) and spoon-feed them ice against New York’s lesser defenders. If they can get a healthy dose of ice away from Adam Fox, I think they’ll take advantage.

• I’ve liked Kevin Bahl for much of the season and he has had some good games in this series. That being said, he is pretty clearly dead last among Devils defenders in xGA/60. He’s had some tough shifts and, in a win or go home game, I’d perhaps be looking to cut his ice a bit.

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numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com, Evolving-Hockey.com, and personal tracking