G6 New Jersey Devils vs Philadelphia Flyers
Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell | @InfernalAccess
Be sure to join the Discord channel to talk hockey, and everything else, with me and fellow subscribers.
Check out our friends at PuckPedia.com for all your salary cap, and contract, needs!
Here are five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Philadelphia Flyers:
An offensive rut
Philadelphia is struggling immensely to create right now. Sean Couturier’s absence certainly doesn’t help matters but there is more to it than that. Philadelphia ranks dead last in attempts/60 and 30th in expected goals/60. They’re generating neither volume or quality; it is bad. Really bad.
Again, Couturier is a big loss to try and overcome. But this is a cap team loaded with big names/big contracts (Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Kevin Hayes, Travis Konecny, etc.) and highly touted youngsters (Nolan Patrick, Joel Farabee, etc.). There is more than enough talent there to *not* be sitting in the position they are.
One thing I believe is hurting the Flyers: they’re not aggressive enough in transition. They can be effective that way but, due to game-planning or a lack of confidence, they’re not trying to push the pace and attack.
While they are built more-so for in-zone offense, that generally means they’re going up against set defenses. It’s harder to create that way – especially without your best player – and I think that is a big part of the problem.
We could be heading for a repeat of G2 vs New York. Tight-checking and low-scoring.
Defend the paint
When teams are struggling offensively, you often hear players and coaches talk about simplifying things. Usually that means throwing pucks, and bodies, at the net and hoping to bang in some rebounds. I’m sure that’ll be in the cards for Philadelphia tonight and, honestly, it might be a good idea.
The Devils have struggled to defend the net-front in recent years. While they’ve shown the ability to do so in spurts this season, the reality is they rank 28th in high-danger chances against/60. It is still an issue.
There’s also the Scott Wedgewood aspect of this. He has played well thus far, especially relative to expectations, but he is leaving some garbage for teams to pounce on. He ranks 42/50 in rebound percentage, per MoneyPuck.
There will be some second chance opportunities on the table for the Flyers. And if the Devils slip up, they’re going to pay for it.
3. Getting exposed
I love Ty Smith. I think he is one of the better defense prospects in hockey and believe he will be an awesome top-4 blueliner for a long time. With that said, I think the success of he and his pairing is smoke and mirrors right now.
The Devils are giving up nearly 20 high-danger chances per 60 with Smith on the ice. Despite that, he has been on for one goal against this season. Unsustainably high percentages are the reason for that.
A lot of the offensive success we’ve seen can be attributed to that as well. He has a point on 83.33% of the 5v5 goals the Devils have scored with him on the ice (not sustainable) and an on-ice shooting percentage of 18.18% (not sustainable).
For perspective of how absurd those numbers are, last season’s Norris winner, Roman Josi, picked up a point on ~51% of the 5v5 goals and had an on-ice shooting percentage of 9.34%.
Smith is playing well offensively. But he is also getting very lucky. And his pairing is yet to pay the price for giving up an absurd amount of shots/chances and posting a ~33 xGF%.
They’re going to get exposed sooner than later if that doesn’t change.
Hughes needs help
Jack Hughes has five points at 5v5 this season, tying him with the likes of Leon Draisaitl and Nik Ehlers for 6th in the NHL. Unfortunately, he is not getting much help; from his linemates or anybody playing beneath him.
Yegor Sharangovich has one shot on goal in that game state through five games. Although Kyle Palmieri at least generated chances last time out, he’s yet to record a 5v5 point. Those are Hughes’ wingers.
On top of that, Miles Wood is the only non-Hughes forward with more than a single point at 5v5 this season. Nobody is producing right now.
As good as Hughes is, he’s a 19-year-old kid taking on a world of responsibility right now. He can’t produce every single night, and nobody else has shown they’re ready to pick up the slack if he has a down performance.
Somebody needs to step up or the Devils are going to have a hard time in the remaining games without Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier.
Wild card
Believe it or not, Nathan Bastian ranks 2nd on the Devils in high-danger chances at 5v5 this season. He has played on the 4th line, and is not flashy, but he’s been able to get some good looks around the net.
I think this game sets up for a player like Bastian to come up big. I don’t see much run-and-gun or transition play. I think this is going to be a low-event meat and potatoes game where the Devils will have to get to the net and score ugly to win.
Lineups
numbers via the great NaturalStatTrick.com and MoneyPuck.com
As you may or may not know, I provide NHL DFS and betting content for EliteFantasy and EliteSportsBetting.
If you want to subscribe to the DFS package, where I am part of a team of four that produces daily content, follow this link and use the code Todd10 for 10% off the season pass. That same code also gets you 10% off the betting package, should that be more of interest.
If that’s your thing, I hope to see some of you over there!
You'd have to think that Gusev, Palmieri and hopefully Johnsson (although maybe a little less likely on the 4th line) are due to start showing a pulse soon. I know Palms has put a few points up, but he's looked really slow/ineffective to me these first 5 games. Here's hoping that he can get it going because whether they end up being bad or in the mix, him not being a factor is a big issue either way, for his trade value at the deadline or helping them grab a playoff spot.
Devils coming off their best game of the season and Flyers are struggling. This game scares me. I agree with you it’d be nice to see johnnson with Hughes.
Maybe johnnson Hughes Palms
Wood Zajac Gusev
Sharangovich Zacha Merkley
Kuokkanen McLeod Bastian
Just don’t see Johnnson mixing on that 4th line.