G6 New Jersey Devils @ New York Rangers: Put them away

The Devils have ridden their strong 5v5 play to a 3-2 series lead. Now, they have a chance to end it in New York.

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A few notes to get you set for Game 6 of Devils vs Rangers:

Watch for regression

Off the top of the head most would think I’m referring to Akira Schmid. To an extent, I am. While I absolutely expect a dip at some point, regression works both ways.

Yes, Schmid’s save percentage is unsustainably high right now. But the shooting percentage for a lot of key Devils remains unsustainably low.

Timo Meier has 20 shots on goal, 18 scoring chances, and 2.15 expected goals in this series. He hasn’t put up a point, let alone found the back of the net.

Nico Hischier has 16 shots on target, 12 high-danger chances, and 2.18 expected goals through five games. He hasn’t scored.

Jesper Bratt has 12 shots on goal – seven of which were high-danger – and 1.72 expected goals thus far. Zero goals.

Should Schmid slow down and concede, say, two goals on 23 shots as opposed to zero? You bet.

But as much as one wants to point the finger at Schmid playing over his head (statistically speaking, over anyone’s head), the same can be done with regards to the finishing – or lack thereof – from three of the Devils’ four elite forwards.

I mean, Meier (12.2%), Hischier (12.1%), and Bratt (15.1%) all scored on at least 12% of their shots during the regular season.

Igor Shesterkin or not, it stands to reason we should expect significantly more than zero goals on 48 shots from that cast of characters. Heck, five goals would only equate to a 10.4 SH%; and think of what a world of difference that’d make over five games.

Given the opportunities Meier, Hischier, and Bratt are getting right now, and the caliber of players they are, it’s only a matter of time before the puck starts to go in. That could, and should, compensate for a potential step back from Schmid.

If the Devils keep playing the way they have been, they’ll be in good shape even if No. 40 hovers around .900.

Ace in the hole