G47 New Jersey Devils @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Go out on a high

The Devils have a chance to head into the All-Star break on a positive note with a win over direct competition for a playoff spot.

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By David Mudrak (@MuddyOpinions)

A few notes to get you set for New Jersey vs. Tampa Bay:

5v5 is key 

Tampa Bay has turned it up since beating the Devils when the teams last met, winning four of their last five. In the last meeting, the Devils played close to a perfect game but could not leave with the two points in large part due to goaltending.

It will take a similar effort tonight for the Devils to gain some points and, more importantly, some ground in the playoff race. 

Early in the season, Tampa was playing porously, but recently, they have started to clamp down defensively. In nearly all games since the two teams' last encounter, Tampa held their opponents to 2.0 xG or fewer at 5v5. They have limited chances against them and made it very difficult to come back, which is something the Devils unfortunately have to do every single game.

That fact may make the match-up sound daunting, but there is a bit of hope. Over the last two games, the Lightning have put up fewer high-danger chances than their opponent, possibly suggesting that their strong run of games is beginning to slow down a bit. 

Furthermore, the Lightning have generated fewer expected goals in that game state against their last three opponents and, other than their last game against Arizona, have not scored much at evens.

This situation works well for New Jersey, as they have been doing well at even strength. Although the Devils have played strong teams in their last three games - Dallas, Vegas, and Carolina - they have won the expected goals battle 5v5. Furthermore, as CJ Turtoro pointed out on X, “the Devils controlled 74.7% of the 5v5 xGs against Carolina.”

Expected goals, as Devils fans clearly know by now, do not win games. Unfortunately, the Lightning have players who can turn the game in their favor with limited opportunities. Nikita Kucherov currently sits second in the league in both points (83) and even strength points (46), while Brayden Point is also playing above a point-a-game clip so far. These two players will punish the Devils if given the chance. 

If the Devils are going to beat the Lightning, it is likely that they will need to do so at even strength and by limiting the opportunities that they leave for the likes of Kucherov and Point. This is even more clear when special teams performance is taken into account. 

5v5 is key, part two (stay out of the box)