G44 New Jersey Devils @ Toronto Maple Leafs: High-danger hockey

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Five things to watch for when the New Jersey Devils take on the Toronto Maple Leafs:

1. The Danger Zone

I noted we could be in for a bunch of chances when the Devils took on the Tampa Bay Lightning. While only five goals were scored in that game, it certainly wasn’t for a lack of opportunity. The two sides combined for 68 chances and 28 Grade A looks.

If that is your kind of hockey, you should be in for another treat tonight. There’s reason to believe this game could be even more juiced up.

Over the last 10 games, the Maple Leafs rank 6th in high-danger chances per 60 at 5v5 and 1st across all game states. They are generating Grade A looks in bulk, which is what you’d expect from a team with such firepower.

What’s a little surprising is the Devils are right there with them. They rank 5th in high-danger chances per 60 at 5v5. They’ve generated 1.22/60 more than the Maple Leafs over the same period. While their power play could still improve, they have been a little better in that regard as well.

Firewagon hockey might be a stretch but I expect both teams to have their share of top-end looks in this game. It’ll be a tough one on the goaltenders. That brings me to my next point…

2. Poor goaltending

New Jersey’s goaltending issues are well documented by now. They have used six different netminders in multiple games this season and all of them have conceded more goals than expected.

Between the struggles of others, and injury issues, the Devils are now at the point where they have to rotate between journeyman goaltender Jon Gillies and 21-year-old Akira Schmid.

Gillies has allowed one or two goals he’d want back almost every game while Schmid (13 goals against on 74 shots) has struggled to even make it through his scheduled starts. Not ideal.

The Devils aren’t the only team dealing with questionable goaltending, though. Jack Campbell, in aggregate, has had a very good season. But his play has really tailed off over the last little while.

He owns a .898 save percentage over the last two months and, among regulars, has posted a worse SV% than all but Jonathan Quick and Joonas Korpisalo in January.

I’m not saying we should expect Campbell to be giving up goals from center ice. However, the Devils should be able to net a few if they continue to generate HD chances at anywhere close to the rate we’ve seen of late.

This has real potential to be a high scoring affair.

3. Discipline is key

The surest way for this game to get out of reach for the Devils is by taking a bunch of penalties. Toronto’s power play is deadly on paper and the numbers suggest they’re every bit as good as you’d expect.

The Maple Leafs average 119 shot attempts, 76 chances, 29 high-danger chances, and nearly 12 goals per 60 minutes of PP time. They lead the league in *checks notes* every single one of those categories.

They move the puck around with great pace and almost every player on the ice is a high-end finisher.

I know the Devils have a solid PK but this is not a power play you want to mess around with; especially when you’re not confident you can get a save.

I think three is the magic number here. Anything more than that and the Devils are playing with fire.

4. Shorten the bench

Ty Smith remains a complete disaster. The Devils have controlled just 40.55% of the expected goals with Smith on the ice over the last 10 games. That poor number stems from his inability to defend. They’ve conceded 14.35 high-danger chances per 60, which ranks Smith last on the team.

For perspective of how poor he has defended, none of the big four (Damon Severson, Jonas Siegenthaler, Ryan Graves, P.K. Subban) have been on the ice for even 10 HDCA/60 in that span.

Without last change, Alain Nasreddine is not going to be able to get Smith out in more favorable matchups. It’ll be very difficult to insulate Smith in non on-the-fly shifts, so the answer might well be to limit Smith’s ice as a whole.

If Sheldon Keefe can get either of his top lines out against Smith with any regularity, things could get ugly.

5. Pickpocket SZN

Both of these teams are most dangerous in transition and off the rush; and both have plenty of players that feed into that style of play.

Of the 330 forwards to play 350+ minutes at 5v5, only 23 have averaged at least 2.80 takeaways per 60. Six(!) of them are in this game:

• Jack Hughes (2nd)

• William Nylander (3rd)

• Mitch Marner (7th)

• Dawson Mercer (9th)

• Auston Matthews (12th)

• Nico Hischier (22nd)

Sloppy passing, poor puck management, and stagnant play won’t cut it in this game. Not with so many players hounding carriers and looking to turn defense into offense in a hurry.

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numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com