G15 New Jersey Devils vs Buffalo Sabres: Third time's the charm
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Five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Buffalo Sabres:
Getting up to speed
Nico Hischier is already taking heat on social media for his performance to date.
He hasn’t picked up a point through three games and, at times, has looked rusty. While that has caused some to sound the alarms, I’m not exactly worried.
Nico is averaging 6.33 primary shot contributions per game at 5v5, slotting him a hair behind 2nd place Jesper Bratt(6.38).
Hischier’s only been on the ice for one goal against at full-strength, and his chance differential is just minus-3.
It’s not like he has been terrible and is costing the team games. He just hasn’t made some of the plays he’d normally make. That is to be expected.
The guy didn’t play a competitive game for nearly a year. He is returning from a significant injury *and* COVID.
It is going to take some time for him to shake off the rust, and he is trying to play his way into game shape against guys who have skated intensely – be it in training camp, practices, or games – with their teammates for over two months.
He’ll get there; there’s no reason to press the panic button after diving head first into a 3-in-4.
Stealing the show
Andrei Vasilevskiy. Marc-Andre Fleury. Those are the only two starting goaltenders ahead of Mackenzie Blackwood in save percentage above expected.
He was one of the league’s best netminders for the final ~80% of last season and he has picked up exactly where he left off.
That’s good news because, after a strong start, the Devils’ defensive play has really dipped. They rank 28th in Expected Goals Against/60 and 29th in High-Danger Chances Against/60 at 5v5. Not great!
Buffalo isn’t exactly an electric offensive team, however, they do have some real firepower up top. Blackwood will no doubt see his fair share of difficult shots. He’ll have to be up to the task.
3rd wheel
Lindy Ruff appears to have settled on Travis Zajac and Nikita Gusev, a duo that worked quite well together a season ago, as key cogs on the 3rd line. Now he’s trying to find the right guy to compliment them.
Ruff tried Mikhail Maltsev there vs Washington and Janne Kuokkanen there last time out. Now, Yegor Sharangovich is going to get a look.
I think part of it is wanting to keep everyone involved. The Devils have a lot of guys who have shown they can play on a rotational basis, at the least. But I could think could really stand to get some stability there and Ruff seems to be searching for it.
A good game from Yeezy tonight would likely help him get an extended look in that role.
Get to the paint
New Jersey really struggled to generate quality opportunities against Buffalo over the last couple of meetings. They created just nine high-danger chances in more than 100 minutes of ice at 5v5. That equates to a little over 5.1 per 60 minutes, a far cry from their season average (10.21/60).
Getting out in front made it easier, of course, but the Sabres have done a really nice job of bottling up the Devils’ speed and taking away the middle of the ice.
New Jersey might have to simplify things as a result. As Nico pointed out after last game, they didn’t do a good job of taking away Linus Ullmark’s sight lines.
The Devils have some big bodies, and quality high-danger chance generators, on the roster. Get to the net and create something ugly.
Creating on the counter-attack is ideal but that’s difficult to do when the Sabres always have guys back and are set on defense. Simplifying might be the answer; play in straight lines, put the puck behind the defense, and work them down low/around the net.
That’s how the Devils have had the most success vs Buffalo this season (see L4’s breakout performance).
Pull the plug
I hate to say it but the Devils really need to cut down the ice time for P.K. Subban. He’s being used as a No. 1 defenseman and he just can’t handle it at this point in his career.
Subban owns a ~40 xGF% at 5v5 and has been on for at least five more goals than every other regular defender on the team. The results are even worse on the PK.
New Jersey is allowing 118 attempts, 64 chances(!), 12.56 expected goals, and 19.67 actual goals per 60 with Subban on the ice shorthanded. Those totals are all last – by a mile – among regular Devils defenders.
Subban still has his moments but, by and large, he’s not very effective anymore. Using him as the defensive ace is a big part of the problem in New Jersey.
The sooner Ruff tones down his usage, the better. It’s just not working.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and MoneyPuck.com
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I hope to see some of you over there!
Nico is starting to bring Zacha down with him.
Great write up Todd. 2 questions for you (the second one is two parts):
1.) Do you personally like the of pairing Zajac and Gusev or would you do something different? I think it’s helped Gusev’s game a little since he was scratched, but I also see the point of leaving Hughes’ line and Hischier’s line intact for now.
2a.) Totally agree on Subban needing less ice time, but what would you say is a reasonable amount? 15-18 minutes? He definitely can’t handle 20+ anymore.
2b.) Do you think it’s time to let Damon Severson take on that bigger role defensively? He seems to have taken a big step this year. Should he play more down the stretch in a close game, but maybe pair him with Ryan Murray rather than Ty Smith (at least in the defensive zone to protect a lead)?