G11 New Jersey Devils vs Edmonton Oilers: Fighting fire with fire
The Devils have won seven of eight while the Oilers enter play on a five-game winning streak. Which scorching hot side will prevail?
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A few things to watch during tonight’s mouthwatering matchup between the New Jersey Devils and Edmonton Oilers:
Pick your spots
The Devils are very good at working teams down low, grinding out offensive zone time, and generating chances from the cycle game. Make no mistake, though: this team still likes to create a lot off the rush.
To date, 27 players have taken at least four chances from rush play at 5v5. Six of those 27 are rostered by the New Jersey Devils.
That’s right; on average not even one player per team has generated four rush opportunities and yet the Devils have six. Six!
New Jersey obviously spends a lot of time in the offensive zone. When they are forced onto their heels for a moment, they’re remarkably good at recovering pucks and using their team speed to turn a defensive situation into an opportunity at the other end of the ice.
I don’t want to see the Devils get away from that style of hockey but I can’t stress enough how important it is to be sure.
The forwards can’t be blowing the zone until they’re sure the puck is safely recovered. The defenders can’t get overly excited about a winger sprinting up ice and force a pass that isn’t there.
Those kind of mistakes will lead to quick strike opportunities against unset defenses, which is a recipe for disaster against the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Be aggressive, but be smart. Even with both goaltenders playing better of late, the Devils can’t rely on them bailing the team out against a side with so much firepower.
The defenses could hang in
With all the stars on display in this game, and goaltending a question mark for each side (more so if Jack Campbell starts), there is real potential for this to be a high scoring affair.
Update: Stuart Skinner will start for the Oilers. He owns a .920 save percentage through 18 career NHL games.
If that proves to be the case, it’ll likely be a byproduct of top tier talent being opportunistic as opposed to the two sides simply trading 400 chances. These teams can play some defense.
The Devils have defended extremely well all season long. Even if we isolate the last six games, where their schedule has toughened a little bit (they played Colorado and Washington), they still grade out remarkably well on the defensive side of things.
In fact, no team has conceded fewer Grade A chances (34) at 5v5 during that stretch of games.
The Oilers aren’t far behind the Devils, having allowed 41 over the last six. The Florida Panthers are the only other team that has done a better job at limiting high-danger opportunities.
I’m not so sure this will be the run-and-gun, pond hockey style game most hope/expect it to be.
Jack Hughes SZN
No. 86 is starting to be properly rewarded for all of the opportunities he is creating on a nightly basis. He has piled up seven points over the last four games, with three multi-point efforts in that span.
Although the Oilers have defended well of late, on the year they haven’t been overly stout; especially when it comes to limiting opposing centers. They rank third last in shots against per game vs the position.
Jack leads the Devils in shots, scoring chances, high-danger chances, and expected goals so he’s more than capable of exploiting that weakness.
Win or lose, I’m expecting another big night from Hughes in terms of creating shots – for himself or teammates – at an efficient rate.
Target Tyson
If I’m Lindy Ruff, I’m getting the Hughes or Hischier line out against Tyson Barrie whenever possible. He has long carried a reputation as a defensive liability and the numbers certainly back that up.
Of the seven defenders to dress in at least seven games for the Oilers this season, Barrie ranks last in 5v5 attempts against (67.55), chances against (31.64), and expected goals against (3.49) on a per 60 basis.
He struggles to defend the blueline through the neutral zone – aka the Devils can target him for easier possession entries – and can be worked over down low in the cycle game.
Jay Woodcroft will undoubtedly do his best to keep Barrie away from the Devils’ top players.
Even if he’s able to do that, I think it should be a point of emphasis for the Devils’ best bottom-6 puck carriers to target Barrie’s side of the ice as much as possible.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
Duo*
Really in depth write up Todd. thank you.
Strange how the oiler defense is so good at limiting hd chances but so bad regarding the shot rate of opposing centers. Do you have any sense of what it is about their systems that would yield these results?