Four New Jersey Devils thoughts
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A few New Jersey Devils thoughts on this off-day:
1) I touched on how well Damon Severson was playing in Sunday’s post, however, I believe he deserves further due.
I realize we are two games into the season. Very small sample size. But, for the most part, I’ve seen a lot of ‘oh, there’s Severson with another turnover. Classic!’ as opposed to ‘wow, he’s playing well.’ I think it should be much more of the latter.
Through two games he has logged a little over 33 minutes at 5v5. He has posted a 55 Corsi For%, 63 Expected Goals For%, and been on the ice for just three high-danger chances against (5.41 per 60). For perspective, last season’s stout Boston Bruins gave up 8.97 high-danger chances per 60. The Devils are allowing next to nothing with Severson on the ice and he is still contributing offensively (see Yegor Sharangovich’s OT winner). I’ve seen a lot of negativity, anyway.
Has he turned the puck over a few times? Absolutely. But they have generally led to nothing, and the good has far outweighed the bad. I mean, Sharangovich can do no wrong in the eyes of Devils fans and he has the same amount of turnovers. Jack Hughes, who everyone is over the moon about after his G2 performance, has turned it over just one less time. I don’t see them getting the same kind of treatment as Severson.
Turnovers are a regular thing in hockey, especially when you have the puck a lot. Stop waiting for a mistake and focus on the overall body of work which, for Severson right now, is quite good.
2) Mackenzie Blackwood has looked nothing short of spectacular thus far. Again, small sample size. But it’s easy to get excited considering, you know, he was like this for 90% of the 2019-20 season.
With Corey Crawford no longer in the picture, Blackwood has to be The Man for the Devils to accomplish anything this season. He looks up to the task.
No. 29 is currently sporting a .954 save percentage. Blackwood hasn’t allowed a single goal at even-strength, and the lone three times he was beat were by high-danger opportunities. Nothing soft is getting by.
He already has a GSAA (goals saved above average) of +3.32 and ranks 2nd in SV% above expectation, per MoneyPuck.com.
Even relative to RFA contracts, which are generally team-friendly, Blackwood looks like an absolute steal at $2.80 million per.
I mean, Tristan Jarry will make $2.1M more over the next three years and he has started the year off by allowing nine goals on 31 shots.
3) I don’t like Will Butcher being scratched. I don’t. I think he is better than several defensemen the Devils are playing over him. With that said, the current circumstances aren’t doing him any favors.
I’m not Dmitry Kulikov’s biggest fan by any means but he is rocking a 64.97 xGF% playing alongside Damon Severson. He has been on the ice for .59 xGA in more than 30 minutes of ice, which would equate to 1.18 xG over a full game. Regardless of how he has *looked*, the reality is the Devils haven’t given up much of anything with him on the ice. That he started in the top-4 shows Lindy Ruff really likes him, and nothing has happened (yet) to give Ruff any reason to change his mind.
Then there’s Matt Tennyson. I could never imagine benching Butcher in favour of Matt Tennsyon. But, somehow, the latter is plus-3 at 5v5 playing on the 3rd pair with Ty Smith. Do I put much value in +/-? Nope! But I doubt the coaching staff will glance at those results and think ‘boy, we need to shake that pairing up.’ The underlying numbers (33 CF%, 31 xGF%) certainly suggest they should but I’m not getting my hopes up.
The schedule will force Ruff to use a lot of bodies on the back end. It hasn’t to this point, though, and I doubt allowing three goals in two games (none at evens) will have Ruff looking to make changes.
Factor in that Sami Vatanen will arrive in the not too distant future and there really isn’t much time for Butcher to a) get in the lineup and; b) win over the coaches, proving to them he should remain in the lineup.
It’s going to be really interesting to monitor this in the coming weeks.
4) I’ve been asked a lot about which forward(s) will come out when Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt are ready. There is still time for that to sort itself out, be it performance-based or an injury popping up, but right now I’d hazard a guess and say Janne Kuokkanen.
I thought he was fairly good in the opener. He led the team in shot assists and helped the 4th line create some offense. He wasn’t at all involved – be it offensively, or on the forecheck – last time out, though. He has attempted two shots through two games and his on-ice numbers are the worst among Devils forwards.
With a bunch of guys playing above expectations (Miles Wood, Jesper Boqvist, Michael McLeod, Nathan Bastian, etc.) there is not much room for error up front. You gotta make a case to remain in the lineup each night, and I don’t think Kuokkanen has done as good of a job of that as some others; at least so far.
He likely has a couple more games in him before Lindy Ruff has to make a decision. We’ll see what he does with them.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and MoneyPuck.com
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I'm not a big Butcher fan but do agree that he should be playing. IMO only one of Kulikov/Tennyson should be in the lineup at a time. Even though the numbers for Smith/Tennyson haven't been particularly good, I'd think that Kulikov would have to come out unless they would also switch the pairings up. A Butcher/Smith pairing would probably get abused out there.
Have always thought the sign of a good team/depth can be shown via their healthy scratches. For the first time since maybe 2007, the devils have an odd man out problem on the backend.