Five bold predictions for the 2021 NHL season: East Division edition
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The New Jersey Devils will play exclusively against teams in the East Division this season. As such, I’ve largely focused on the East.
Of late, I’ve shared breakout picks and predicted award winners using only players from the East.
Today, I’ll be sharing five bold predictions within the division.
Jack Eichel will finish top-3 in goals
I think the sky is the limit for Jack Eichel this season. He quietly produced at a 94-point pace prior to the pause last season and that was without Taylor Hall riding shotgun. Say what you want about Hall – his best season (the MVP year) is probably behind him – but he is still an impact player. Particularly when it comes to creating offense for teammates.
Hall ranks 24th in 5v5 assists per minute over the last two seasons. 24th! If we isolate primary assists to get rid of some noise, and add a better feel for a player’s true talent, Hall comes out looking even better.
He sits 7th – behind only Mitch Marner, Sidney Crosby, Artemi Panarin, Brayden Point, Evgeni Malkin, and Jonathan Huberdeau – in first assists per minute.
He is still as dangerous as ever as a playmaker and now he gets to play with a guy who scored at a ~44 goal clip last season.
Eichel’s ability, and shooting volume, coupled with ideal surroundings (Hall on his line at ES, Rasmus Dahlin QBing PP1, etc.) should allow him to reach new heights.
I like him to hang with Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews in the Rocket Richard race.
Ilya Samsonov will be a Vezina finalist
‘Todd, you’re hyping up Ilya Samasonov AGAIN?”
Yes, Timothy. Yes, I am. And for good reason!
The Capitals were not a great defensive team last season. Far from it. Washington finished 19th in xGA/60 and 26th in high-danger chances against/60.
If you watched them play, you’d have noticed more breakdowns and glaring mistakes than in years past (there is a reason Todd Reirden was let go).
Despite some defensive issues, Samsonov was nothing short of excellent in his rookie campaign. He finished with the same 5v5 save percentage as Andrei Vasilevskiy – you might have heard of him – and was better against HD shots than the likes of Carey Price and Carter Hart. Yeah, he is good.
With Braden Holtby out of the picture, and Henrik Lundqvist unfortunately unable to play hockey this season, Samsonov is now the undisputed No. 1 goaltender in Washington.
I think he has a really good shot of piling up the wins and posting excellent individual numbers in the process. If he does, he’s going to get recognized.
Nico Hischier will average a point per game
I know, I know. That is quite the jump from his career average of .65 per game. Well, that is the point of this post. It is supposed to be a little out there.
But I have reasons for my optimism beyond ‘he’s talented and was drafted high, hopefully it’ll come.’
Here are a few:
1) This is the best top-6 Nico has had. There is no MVP-caliber linemate like Taylor Hall but, top to bottom, this is the most talented top-6 the Devils have iced since Nico entered the league. No matter who Nico is with, he should be productive.
2) More pace and offense under Lindy Ruff. His top players in Buffalo scored a lot. His top players in Dallas scored a lot. And, while in New York, his defense was better at creating goals than preventing them. He is willing to unleash his skill players, where as John Hynes focused on structure and limiting mistakes, and I think Nico is going to benefit from that.
3) Nico has always been an efficient 5v5 producer. The issue was a lack of PP production. While it hasn’t come yet. I don’t think it is necessarily because of the perception he is not good in those situations. Since entering the league, his on-ice expected goals/60 rate on the PP is 6.79. In actuality, the Devils have scored 5.71 per 60. For perspective, the Capitals generated 6.74 xG/60 last season on the PP and the Canadiens scored 5.67 per 60, good for 27th.
What I’m trying to say, essentially, is with Nico on the ice the Devils have generated enough to be similarly good to Washington (last season) but have only scored enough to match the Canadiens. I’m not arguing Nico is going to turn into this world beater and put up 30 PP points, but I’d bet on the percentages becoming a little more favorable moving forward. That’ll help boost his outputs.
Maybe a point per game is a stretch, especially in such a competitive division, but I think he can hover around that range.
Adam Fox will produce at a 60-point pace
Devils fans, look away. This may hurt your eyes.
Fox produced at a 47 point pace last season despite playing fewer than 19 minutes per game. I expect him to hover in the 21-22 minute range this season.
He’ll be the primary QB on an elite PP1 and he should see big minutes at even-strength. Giving a player of his talent – I think he is already one of the best in-zone passers in the NHL – a ton of ice on a fast-paced team with an abundance of talent up front is a recipe for success. New York’s forwards were already extremely dangerous and now they added Alexis Lafreniere to the mix. Yeah, they’re going to score goals.
I know 60 points is a lot. Very few defenders produce at that rate. But Fox was on pace for 47 last season so moving the needle up to 50 doesn’t exactly fit the criteria of a bold prediction.
The Bruins will still be the best defensive team in the division
(let’s quantify this as the best average ranking in chances, expected goals, and actual goals against per 60 at 5v5)
A lot of people are concerned about Boston’s blueline right now. Understandably so. They have Matt Grzelcyk pegged into the LD1 spot, and John Moore/Jeremy Lauzon splitting duties when he isn’t on the ice. I like Grz but that’s a pretty grim looking left side for a Stanley Cup contender. Even so, I think Boston’s team defense, as a whole, will be just fine. In fact, I still believe they’ll excel.
For one, their big losses (Torey Krug and, potentially, Zdeno Chara) aren’t crushing with regards to the team’s ability to defend. From 2018-20, the Bruins allowed goals, expected goals, and high-danger chances at a higher rate with those guys on the ice than without. Krug is hardly a stout defender. The same can be said of Chara at this point in his career.
Now, I’d definitely take that pair 100 times over Moore and Lauzon. Krug’s overall impact is rock solid and his departure will be felt. I’m not at all trying to suggest otherwise.
I’m just noting that with defensive ace Charlie McAvoy anchoring the blueline, which also features Brandon Carlo and Grz (good defenive players), they should still be stout; especially with Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and co. around to help out and do some of the heavy lifting.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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Ugh, the Fox trade is was beyond annoying. The Rangers, give them credit for the rebuild, but man, did they have a ton break their way. That was not a conventional rebuild in any sense of the word.