Examining UFA targets for the top-6

With the potential departure of Tomas Tatar, and uncertainty around Alexander Holtz, the Devils may elect to use free agency to bolster their forward core.

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By JP Gambatese (@JP_Gambatese)

Editor’s note: I’m happy to announce JP will be joining InfernalAccess as a contributor. The tentative plan is for JP to write a weekly post, liking coming around the middle of each week. That part is subject to change as we integrate JP into the mix. Please give him a warm welcome and enjoy his debut post at IA!

After an incredibly successful season, the New Jersey Devils should be a sought after destination for unrestricted free agents.

With 13 regulars on expiring contracts (five unrestricted), Tom Fitzgerald may opt to utilize free agency if he determines that in-house prospects are less likely to lead to success.

Over the next few weeks, I will take a look at the potential holes in the Devils lineup as a result of prospective departures. First up is the top-6. 

Tomas Tatar seems unlikely to return to the squad after he followed up a stellar regular season with an abysmal playoff performance, and I feel as though Fitzgerald and Ruff prefer Palat to stay in a third-line role with the team.

Alexander Holtz is an intriguing option to slot into the top-6, however his lacklustre – albeit short – tenure with the main team is reason to believe the front office doesn’t believe in him succeeding in this spot.

Here are some UFA options that New Jersey should target for their top-6, excluding pending UFAs that spent last season with the Devils:

Michael Bunting

Most recently producing 46 goals and 112 points over a two-year, $950,000 AAV contract with the Leafs, Bunting has set himself up nicely to earn a significant pay raise.

In his two years with Toronto, Bunting excelled analytically. He posted a 59.5% expected goals rate and a combined xGAR of 16.1. He drew 88 penalties (he also took 74), and was fourth on the squad in ixG with 50.79.

Bunting is a high-event player. He’s a good skater, underrated playmaker, and is the type of hard-nosed, pesky forward with skill that the Devils should want. Bunting thinks the game at a high enough speed to fit in well in Ruff’s system, and would be able to slot in anywhere in the top-9.

Another reason New Jersey should be looking at Bunting is the way in which he creates his chances. The Devils were a bottom-10 team in percentage of goals from rebounds and that is where Bunting excels.

This past season, Bunting created 15.6 rebounds above expected, and a whopping 29.2% of his expected goals came from rebounds. This is exactly the type of player that the Devils need to improve on this facet of their game.

There is the argument that his success was a product of the teammates he was surrounded by – his top three linemates in TOI were Matthews, Nylander, and Marner – but I do not think that is the case.

Bunting, while away from those three playdriving juggernauts, still posted an xG% well over 50%. Just based on the eye test, too, he was fit for the role. He often found himself in the dirty areas of the ice, using elite puck persistence and grinding away along the boards to get the puck to his linemates. 

The other issue people will (and should) have with Bunting is his contract. In a weaker UFA class like this year, teams are bound to overpay for who they perceive to be the cream of the crop.

Bunting should be a sought after player after his success in Toronto and disposition as a Hockey Man’s dream. Thus, it may be that teams are willing to overpay for his services.

With that said, if the Devils are able to poach him from the market with a medium-length contract in the $4-5 million AAV range, I believe they should pounce on it. 

Max Pacioretty

I should start out by saying that, yes, Max Pacioretty would be a risk. He has torn his Achilles twice in a year and has only averaged 30 games per season over the last three years. 

However, Pacioretty is a risk well worth taking. When he’s healthy, he’s a bona fide sniper.

From the 2019-20 season to date (excluding this season because he only played 5 games), Patches ranked 12th, 8th, and 17th in the league in goals per 60 minutes. He is a six-time 30 goal scorer. Since he was traded to the Golden Knights, he has averaged 0.44 goals per game. Over a full season, that translates to 36 goals. 

He’s a good playdriver as well. When he was on the ice with Vegas, they controlled just about 57% of the expected goals at even strength.

He gets a lot of pucks on net, and often finds himself in dangerous areas of the ice. 

Then, there’s the matter of his projected contract. If Evolving Hockey’s contract projections are correct, Pacioretty should net something adjacent to a one-year, $1.5 million contract.

If he ends up signing a deal similar to this – anything under $2.5 million for one year would be a reasonable ask – the Devils should be in the mix for the 34-year-old winger. His talent is undeniable, and at what should be a cheap cost, he would be a high-reward, low-risk addition to the team. 

Evan Rodrigues