Examining the worst off-season move by each Metro Division team
Examining the worst off-season move by each Metro Division team
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While there is no start date officially set in stone, the NHL continues to push towards dropping the puck on a new campaign January 1st.
If that’s the case, we’re as little as three weeks away from (some) teams opening training camps.
With that in mind, and the bulk of all off-season transactions behind us, I thought it’d be fun to go team-by-team in the Metro and share my thoughts on the worst move made.
Note: I previously examined the best moves made by each team.
Carolina Hurricanes
Move: ignoring their goaltending situation.
The Hurricanes didn’t make a bad move, per se, so I’ll focus on what they didn’t do. And what they didn’t do is address their goaltending.
Petr Mrazek is OK. James Reimer is OK. Put ‘em together and the results are unsurprisingly ‘meh’. The Hurricanes were 26th in save percentage a season ago and I’m not sure there is much reason to expect a whole lot better moving forward (it’s not as if they added Jared Spurgeon to their blueline and will now never allow a chance).
Over the last three years, Mrazek ranks 45th in total save percentage while Reimer sits 37th. The former stacks up better when isolating 5v5 play but, again, there doesn’t appear to be anything remotely special here.
I know the Hurricanes like to value shop, especially in goal. But the Hurricanes were a top-10 team in many regards (points percentage, Corsi For%, Expected Goals For%, etc.) last season with bottom-6 goaltending.
That is the one thing they are clearly missing, and there were no shortage of quality netminders available this off-season.
I get skipping on the high-priced guys like Jacob Markstrom – the term brings a ton of risk – but to come away empty-handed across the board is disappointing.
Trading James Reimer, who would have been attractive because of his $850K base salary this season, and signing Corey Crawford (10th in SV%, 3rd in HDSV% over the last three seasons) is just one example of how they could have upgraded in goal without putting a crazy amount of resources into the position.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Move: Incomplete.
A playoff team trading a pair of established defenders (Ryan Murray and Markus Nutivaara) for nothing obviously was not done for no reason. The Blue Jackets wanted to clear a lot of money off the books, and they did.
Now, Pierre-Luc Dubois needs a new contract and he will eat a significant portion of the team’s available cap. But it is worth noting the guy has averaged 55 points per 82 games through three years. He is a really good player, and will likely still improve, but he’s not the best thing since sliced bread. There should still be a decent amount of money remaining, which will only increase if/when Brandon Dubinsky ends up on LTIR.
They’re going to have some flexibility, and there is a very clear way they should put it to use. That, of course, is upgrading up front.
Columbus ranked 26th in 5v5 goals and 27th across all situations. They need more offense. Max Domi will help, but there needs to be more.
If the Blue Jackets find a way to add more pop before the season, I’m cool with that.
If they traded Ryan Murray for a 5th – when they could have signed PLD and put Dubinsky on LTIR – only to sit idly then, well, I’m not a big fan of that move and it would be my choice for this article.
New Jersey Devils
Move: signing Dmitry Kulikov to one-year, $1.15 million deal
I have no problem with Kulikov as a 3rd pairing/rotational piece who plays ~16 minutes a night and chips in on the PK. I think that’s the role New Jersey signed him to play.
At the end of the day, though, he neuters his own offense so much that it can override what he brings to the table defensively. That’s why he has been worth minus-2.6 Goals Above Replacement over the last three years despite a positive impact on his team’s defensive numbers.
Again, I’m fine with this deal. He brings some elements the Devils don’t have a lot of it and it’s not like they invested much. But the rest of the moves made were clear wins, making this the team’s worst move by default.
New York Islanders
Move: trading Devon Toews to Colorado for a pair of 2nd round picks
I am a big, big, big Devon Toews fan. I know he doesn’t put up a ton of points but he is still a hell of a player.
He is excellent helping his team breakout of the defensive zone and he’s very stout without the puck. I think he is the perfect, modern-day defensive defenseman.
Toews may not be a top-pairing guy, but he is close to it. Evolving-Hockey has Toews tied for 76th among defensemen in GAR over the last two seasons. @JFresh’s NHL rating cards think even higher of Toews.
Even if you believe the numbers crowd overrates Toews, I don’t think there is much debate he’s at least a fairly good 2nd pairing defender. And he is 26.
In exchange for a top-4 D in the prime of his career, the Isles landed a couple of 2nd round picks from one of the league’s true Cup contenders. There is a very real possibility those picks end in the 56-62 range.
They bring a ~25% chance of getting a regular NHLer, let alone a top-6 forward or top-4 defender. I’d much prefer the Toews side of the deal.
I understand the Isles were pressed into this kind of move because their cap situation. That situation was self-inflicted, though. Cal Clutterbuck is making $3.5M. Leo Komarov is making $3M. Ross Johnston is making $1M.
Maybe if they didn’t commit so much money to scraps, they could have kept their actual good players around.
New York Rangers
Move: signing Jack Johnson to one-year, $1.15 million deal
Let me just hit you with some facts:
• Johnson has played 13 seasons in the NHL. His teams have been out-shot with him on the ice at 5v5 in every single one of them.
• Johnson has posted a positive on-ice goal differential once in 13 years.
• of the 235 defenders to log at least 1,000 minutes over the last three seasons, only six averaged fewer points per 60 than Johnson.
• using the same criteria as the bullet above, Johnson ranks bottom-5 in relative xG% and relative HDCF%.
• Johnson ranks dead last – 1079/1079 – among all players (not just defenders) with a -23.3 GAR over the last three seasons.
Somehow, someway, a team signed Johnson in effort to improve. What a world we’re living in.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Move: trading 15th overall, and prospect Filip Hallander, for Kasperi Kapanen
There were some other minor pieces involved but, in essence, this is what the trade comes down to. And I don’t like it one bit for Pittsburgh.
While Kapanen has some excellent tools – like elite speed – he doesn’t really know how to use them. Much like Miles Wood in New Jersey, Kapanen often plays too fast for his own good. The hands and processing generally don’t keep up with the pace he is skating at and his speed skates him into trouble as much as it does out of it.
He doesn’t drive play, he is fine but not crazy efficient at 5v5, and his defensive impact isn’t as good as he seems to get credit for.
I get Pittsburgh wanted to add team speed, youth, and some talent that can help them now so they don’t waste away the last great years of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
But the cost of acquisition was, quite frankly, absurd. The Devils gave up Joey Anderson for Andreas Johnsson (12.2 GAR over L3 years) and you can make a strong case they landed a better player than Pittsburgh (Kapanen has a 4.8 GAR over L3) did for a mid-1st and a solid prospect.
Philadelphia Flyers
Move: Incomplete.
The Flyers didn’t really do anything this off-season outside of signing Erik Gustafsson. While he has serious limitations, he is a good PP QB and can be useful if deployed properly. I’m not going to give them a hard time about a one-year gamble on a skilled offensive specialist.
Washington Capitals
Move: signing Justin Schultz to a two-year deal worth $4 million per
The Capitals seem like a pretty savvy team. Generally speaking, I agree with a lot of the moves they make. I’m not sure what they were thinking on this one, though.
Schultz is a poor defensive player. He needs to be sheltered at 5v5 and he is not going to play on the PK. His GAR has cratered over the last few years (he went from +11.7, to -0.7, to -1.9), which has to be concerning.
Schultz’ calling card is his power play work. He is supposed to be a PP specialist. The funny thing is he posted a negative GAR on the man advantage last season.
The Capitals are essentially paying Schultz $4M per for poor defensive play and to mediocrely QB PP2. Call me crazy but that doesn’t seem like good value.
Numbers from NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com
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