Examining the Achilles heel of each Metro(+) team
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The NHL still hasn’t officially announced divisions for the upcoming season but all signs point towards the New Jersey Devils sharing one with Boston, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, and New York x2.
Given these teams will exclusively square off against each other, I thought it’d be fun to look at the weaknesses that could lead to the downfall of each side. Their Achilles heels, if you will.
Let’s get right into it.
Boston - no left defense
The Bruins were the NHL’s No. 1 seed a season ago. While they figure to be strong once again, I’m not sure they have another President’s Trophy in their future.
The biggest cause for concern, in my opinion, is the left side of their defense. It is…putrid.
Torey Krug walked away from the team in free agency after seven strong seasons – he produced at a 40+ point pace in each – and Zdeno Chara still hasn’t been brought back. The latter is not what he once was, however, he ranked 2nd on the team in 5v5 ice per game last season. It’s not like his potential departure will be unfelt.
As currently constructed, that leaves the Bruins with a LD of Matt Grzelcyk, John Moore, and Jeremy Lauzon. I think Grz is a very underrated defenseman but Moore is a disaster on ice and Lauzon’s relative numbers – while playing sparingly – were mostly negatively over the last couple years. Not a great group.
Given all the starpower in the Metro+, the left side of Boston’s defense could prove problematic.
Buffalo - goaltending
The Sabres did some good things this off-season. They signed Taylor Hall to inject more pop on the wing and make Jack Eichel happy. They acquired Eric Staal to fill the 2C hole with someone actually competent. Top prospect Dylan Cozens should be ready for full-time duty, and the blueline has a few young pieces – headlined by Rasmus Dahlin – that should continue to develop. I don’t expect a lot from Buffalo yet but there appears to be a clear path towards improvement.
What worries me is their goaltending. The Sabres ranked 24th in team save percentage a season ago and they are running it back with the same cast of characters.
Linus Ullmark showed flashes but he did so over 34 games. If he can’t be a true No. 1, the team will have to rely on Carter Hutton as the 1B. He posted a sub .900 save percentage last season so that’s not exactly a position you want to find yourself in.
I think Ullmark will be solid but it’s not like he has a long track record of success (he posted a .905 SV% in 2018-19). The Sabres don’t have a fallback if he falters at all. It is very possible they have the worst netminding in the division.
New Jersey - no established forward depth
New Jersey’s top-6 looks quite good. They have a pair of 1st overall picks down the middle, and there is plenty of surrounding talent on the wings with Kyle Palmieri, Jesper Bratt, Nikita Gusev, and newcomer Andreas Johnsson. Regardless of the combos Lindy Ruff elects to go with, the top two lines should be good.
Unfortunately, I can’t say the same about the bottom-6. Travis Zajac isn’t what he once was and Pavel Zacha scored eight goals last season. Those are the anchors at center, and there isn’t much production on the wing the team can bank on. Miles Wood is usually good for 10+ goals but, after that, it is a bunch of question marks.
Jesper Boqvist put up four points in 34 games last season and he’s the clubhouse leader in NHL production among the players he’ll be fighting with for jobs (Yegor Sharangovich, Janne Kuokkannen, Nick Merkley, Nathan Bastian, etc.).
There isn’t really anybody the Devils can pencil in for relatively consistent production or comfortably say ‘yeah, he can play a top-6 role for three weeks when injury strikes’. That is a problem.
New York Islanders - secondary scoring
Led by Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee, and Anthony Beauvillier, New York’s top-6 is fairly potent. They’re not Tampa Bay, Colorado, Boston or Toronto, but they’re good.
Secondary scoring is a problem, though. The Islanders ranked 26th in goals/60 at 5v5 last season (behind New Jersey!) – largely due to a lack of pop in the bottom-6 – and they didn’t do anything this off-season to improve. Cap issues played a part in that, of course, but it is Lou Lamoriello’s job to try and dance around that.
Having a full season of J.G. Pageau should help a little bit. In saying that, I don’t see Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck, Matt Martin (when he signs), Michael Dal Colle, Ross Johnston and co. magically turning into point producing machines. The bottom-6 will likely struggle to score, which only puts more pressure on the defense – now without Devon Toews – to hold down the fort.
The Islanders will be competitive again but a lack of any real firepower in the bottom-6 definitely puts a ceiling on how good they can be.
New York Rangers - team defense
Their defense was horrendous last season. Absolutely horrendous. The Rangers ranked 29th in high-danger chances against/60, 30th in expected goals against/60, and 31st in shot attempts against/60. They gave up quality and quantity every single night.
Given as much, one would think they’d make fairly significant changes to try and turn things around. They didn’t.
Their big blueline makeover entailed moving on from Marc Staal in a cap dump to Detroit (good), only to replace him with Jack Johnson (bad). Somehow, some way, they dealt one of the worst defenders in the league and gave his roster spot to somebody worse.
The Rangers do have some talent on their blueline. Adam Fox looks like the next big thing and Jacob Trouba, while overrated, has played top-4 minutes for years. There is basically nothing supporting those guys, though. The Rangers have Ryan Lindgren, Brenden Smith, and Johnson on the left side, and defensively inept Tony DeAngelo rounding things out on the right side.
Even if Fox continues to emerge as a top pairing caliber player, I think New York’s defense will be a train wreck once again.
That’s going to mitigate a lot of value created from their dynamic top-6 and lights out play from Igor Shesterkin.
Philadelphia Flyers - creativity
Claude Giroux. Sean Couturier. Jakub Voracek. Travis Konecny. Kevin Hayes. Oskar Lindblom. Joel Farabee. James van Riemsdyk. The Flyers have a long list of talented players up front, and a lot of guys with track records of consistent offensive production.
They should be one of the more threatening offenses in the league because of their talent, balance, and depth. I don’t really see that in them, though. They’re so focused on playing within the structure of their system that it takes away from what they can do. Hear me out.
This team ranked 24th in 5v5 chances/60 a season ago. 24th. That ranked them below teams like Los Angeles, Anaheim, and Arizona. Teams with far less talent.
Philadelphia also ranked a very pedestrian 19th in terms of expected goals/60. Their offense really didn’t create many quality looks.
To their credit, they were opportunistic on the chances they did get but you can’t just bank on shooting percentages to get you through. The volume needs to be there.
I think we saw that firsthand in the playoffs. The Flyers had a helluva time vs both Montreal and New York. They created fewer than 2.0 expected goals per 60 at 5v5 (for perspective, Detroit generated 1.92 per 60 in the regular season) and looked rather lifeless for much of their time in the bubble.
Call me crazy but I believe their focus on such a simple, structured game took away from their creativity and ability to threaten teams offensively. If they don’t let their stars cook a little more, per se, I think we’re going to see the Flyers take a step back next season.
Pittsburgh Penguins - miscast defenders
For years the Penguins have overpaid and overused defenders that are detriments to the team. Erik Gudbranson and Jack Johnson come to mind.
The good news for Penguins fans is GM Jim Rutherford pulled the plug on both of those players over the last 12 months. The bad news is he invested in another questionable pair of defenders this off-season, trading for Mike Matheson and signing Cody Ceci.
Matheson is not a good player. His on-ice metrics have been poor for years – Florida was out-scored, and expected to be out-scored, with Matheson on the ice in each of the last three seasons – and things got so bad in Florida that they used him as a forward.
For some reason Pittsburgh decided that player, who has six years remaining at $4.75 million per, was a guy they needed to add to their team. Okay then.
Making matters worse – oh, so much worse – is the fact they will also be paying Cody Ceci to play hockey. He brings nothing to the table offensively, and is somewhat of a pylon defensively. Take a look.
Call me crazy, but I don’t think those are the kinds of players the Penguins should be surrounding Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin with in the twilight of their primes.
I think Pittsburgh is going to have some defensive issues this season, and the new guys will be at the forefront of those problems.
Washington Capitals - Jultz
Their top power play has been lethal for what feels like forever. It has, and figures to be, so long as Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and John Carlson are on it.
Their second power play unit isn’t very good, though. Lars Eller centers PP2 and the Capitals averaged ~14.5 fewer shot attempts, and ~1.5 fewer expected goals, per 60 with him on the ice. Now, it’s normal for there to be a drop off. But, well, the PP goes from high-end to Columbus Blue Jackets-caliber real quick. PP2 needed real improvement.
So what did the Capitals do? They went out and signed Justin Schultz. He is perceived to be a PP specialist but he doesn’t really live up to that reputation. At least not of late. After posting a PP GAR of +4.7 in 2016-17, his PP play has been worth +3.8 GAR over the last three seasons combined. His struggles were especially noticeable this past season, where he finished with a negative GAR.
Of the 59 most used defenders at 5v4 last season, Schultz ranked 50th in on-ice goals/60 and 51st in points/60. Not great!
I don’t think he is the solution for a struggling PP2, and he is a liability at 5v5.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com
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Interesting things to consider, especially given the circumstances this year with teams playing only in-division. Looking on the bright side, it would be great if we improved a bunch but the tough division keeps us down in the standings thus yielding us a high draft pick. On the other hand, it would be nice to not suck this year.
I can't believe that JR still has a job in Pittsburg. this has got to be his last year, right?
that cici video is pretty funny.