Draft Day Thoughts
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There is a lot of noise surrounding the New Jersey Devils as we head into the heart of the off-season.
Which prospect will they select 4th overall? Which prospects should they be targeting late in the 1st round? Will they simply trade the pick?
Those are popular questions among the fanbase so, today, I’m going to do my best to answer them.
I’ve learned nothing is done until it is done, however, I’m quite confident Hughes will be selected 4th overall.
I have had plenty of conversations with people in the industry and they all feel the Devils are high on Hughes. And, whether or not it should be, the Jack factor is very real. Jack made it no secret he’d like to play with Luke. Factor in the pedigree of Luke as a prospect, the organizational need on defense, and the scheme fit, and I think it’d be a tough sell to Jack if they were to pass on Luke.
Maybe I’m wrong. But all the information I’ve dug up points to Luke at 4.
No, I don’t think Hughes will be chosen top-3. Anaheim could surprise, sure, but I believe they want to add a big-time forward up front. If they’re going that route, William Eklund would be the smart pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went Dylan Guenther (he can score goals) or Mason McTavish, though. And that’s if they keep the pick.
If it somehow makes its way to Buffalo in a Jack Eichel deal, I see Eklund going 3rd.
I do like Clarke quite a bit. I think he is a top-end prospect and, quite honestly, he seems almost underrated at this point.
In saying that, I prefer Luke for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, he’s a fantastic skater who is dynamic in transition. He’ll get you out of the defensive zone, and into the offensive zone, in a hurry. I think he brings more value in that respect than Clarke.
I also think, because of his gap control, size, and reach, he possesses more defensive upside.
Hughes has all the tools necessary to be a star. I don’t think Clarke’s skating will hold him back to the same extent as some, however, I think Hughes’ excellence in that area is a big plus for the way the Devils are building their team and the way they want to play. They’re all about pushing the pace and Luke can help them do that.
I think so. I’m really high on Hughes. In my opinion the ceiling is definitely there and he checks so many boxes for the Devils.
In saying that, taking Eklund would hardly be an egregious decision. I love his puck skills, tenacity, and two-way game. I think he has a real shot at being the best forward in the draft.
Quite different, in my opinion. Hughes is more of a puck transporter and rusher than Smith is. I think he has more agility and craftiness to him. Hughes also has the much bigger frame and, with good coaching and development, should be a better defensive player.
Pick 29
I think there’s a very real chance the Devils move this pick, likely for a winger. Timo Meier (24) and Conor Garland (25) are a pair of quality top-6 wingers available and neither is going to come cheap. I could see that pick being included in a package for one of them.
If the ask is too high on those guys, the Devils might opt to gamble on Vladimir Tarasenko. There is some risk given his contract and recent injury history but a) the cost of acquisition will be low; b) they can easily afford his cap hit and; c) the term is short.
If it doesn’t work, it’s not the end of the world. And if it does? He could make a lethal combo with Jack Hughes.
Should the Devils stay put, a couple guys I personally like in that area are Sasha Pustujov and Shai Buium. More so the former, but both have upside.
Other notes
If you want to get some money down on the draft, or make some predictions and brag to your friends, there are a few props that standout to me:
Mason McTavish under 8.5. I played this -175 at Coolbet. It seems like a steep price but I don’t think it is. That implies a 63% chance McTavish goes top-8. I think it is wayyyyy higher than that. Heck, I wouldn’t be shocked if he went top-5.
Simon Edvinsson under 6.5. He is a very good skater and projects to be the best defensive defender in the draft. Teams love guys who can play 20+ minutes a night and limit opposing offense. Bob McKenzie had him 3rd in his rankings, which are based on the opinions of NHL scouts. HockeyProspect also ranked Edvinsson 3rd. I’m confident he’s not lasting until 7 or later.
William Eklund under 7.5. I personally haven’t come across that prop but plenty of people on Twitter have asked me about it. If you can find that, play it at almost any price. Even if he slips a little, I don’t see him making it to 8. That’s an insane fall.
Luke Hughes under 5.5. 4.5 is fine, too. I just think he’s going to be New Jersey’s pick. If that’s the case, you’re hitting at either number.
Enjoy the draft!
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Yay no more stress about acquiring Ristolainen . Flyers traded for him. Win-Win!
Love Jack's reaction to Luke getting drafted. I think Jack was more excited than Luke was.