Dougie Hamilton has provided immense value this season; can it continue?

The veteran offensive defenseman has quietly garnered fantastic results. Unfortunately, there is cause for concern beneath the surface.

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By CJ Turtoro (@CJTDevil)

Dougie Hamilton is likely the most valuable defenseman on the New Jersey Devils. Let’s start there. 

It depends on exactly how you want to quantify value, but his offensive results at both even-strength and on the power play – which is 2nd best in the NHL as of this writing – speak for themselves.

He has 36 points, which is 14 more than the 2nd-highest Devils defenseman (Luke Hughes, 22). At even-strength, he has 21 points, which is 7 higher than the 2nd highest Devils defenseman (Luke again, 14).

When Dougie is on the ice, the Devils score 3.38 goals per hour. When he’s off the ice, they score 1.86(!) per hour. 

Now, his defense is predictably poor, but the team’s goal share is 3% higher with him on the ice, and the goal differential is about half a goal better. So, the offense has more than made up for the defense … so far.

And that gets to the crux of this article: is Dougie’s offensive rent coming due?

At first glance, there’s nothing to worry about. And I mean NOTHING. In fact, if you add up his even-strength and power play impact, he’s the most offensively valuable defenseman in the NHL and the 4th most offensively valuable player in the NHL, behind some pretty good guys.

Digging a little deeper, we find that Dougie’s been quite fortunate in terms of teammate finishing. His teammates have scored 50 goals on 40 xGs at even-strength.

While that may not seem like a lot, remember that his even-strength offensive value shown above is 10.9, which means that virtually all of it is coming from shooting value.

If we look at his RAPM impacts, his expected goal impact is only slightly better than his disappointing first season in New Jersey, and his possession impact is the worst of his career and barely in positive territory.