Devils need to break up Hischier, Bratt, and Palat

Alex Chauvancy dives into some of the many reasons why in his latest.

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By Alex Chauvancy (@AlexC_THW)

On the season as a whole, the New Jersey Devils have been one of the better five-on-five teams in the NHL. But since the calendar flipped to 2023, that's changed quite significantly. They own a 46.72 Corsi for percentage and 45.73 expected goals percentage, ranked in the bottom-10 of the league. 

In that time, the Devils have a 57.14 goals for percentage. History tells us that number will end up regressing closer to their xG share at some point.

They need to start playing better at five-on-five, and their rolling ten-game average shows a clear downward trend in their xG for quite some time: 

Jack Han broke down some of the Devils' recent struggles in his latest article. Part of it is because their breakouts have become too predictable and their offensive structure has gotten a bit too aggressive. If you haven't watched the video, I recommend you check it out.

Even though the Devils have systemic issues to figure out, head coach Lindy Ruff has not done a great job optimizing his line combos for the last four or five weeks.

One example would be the continued usage of Ondrej Palát, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt as the team's top line.

On paper, it seems like this trio would be successful. They were early in the season before Palát's injury. Since he has returned, the line has not controlled play like a team needs their top line to at five-on-five. 

Ruff has proven combos to better optimize 1st line

Perhaps this was masked a bit because of the play of Jack Hughes, but the Hischier line has quietly gotten outplayed at five-on-five for a while now.

Since Jan. 1, they own a 48.94 xG% and have only controlled 48.23 percent of the scoring chances. Their numbers get worse when you adjust the sample, too. 

For example, they have a 45.61 xG% since Jan. 15 and are just a touch above 41 percent over the team's last five games. Even with Hughes in the lineup, that needs to be much better. With Hughes out for at least a few games with an upper-body injury, the Devils can't have that if they want to get back to controlling play at five-on-five. 

It's not like it's a few games, either. It's been four-plus weeks of the Palát, Hischier and Bratt line putting up mediocre five-on-five results.

So, what's the solution? It's pretty simple. Break them up.

Part of it is because they're not playing well; but the rest of the lineup needs more balance until Hughes returns to game action. 

There isn't one right combination. However, there are a few that could offer solutions; some of which Ruff has used this season.

One would be to reunite Hischier with Tomáš Tatar and Fabian Zetterlund. It's been a minute since the Devils have used this combo. Their five-on-five numbers still rank among the best of any line Ruff has put together this season; they own a 64.09 xG% and plus-6 goal differential. 

That would drop Palát to the second line with Dawson Mercer and Jesper Bratt until Hughes returns and would give the Devils this look up front:

• Tatar - Hischier - Zetterlund

• Palát - Mercer - Bratt

• Yegor Sharangovich - Erik Haula - Alexander Holtz

• Miles Wood - Michael McLeod - Nathan Bastian

The key to the top-six, as you'll see for the rest of this post, is reuniting Tatar with Hischier. Their success together dates back to the start of last season, and it's continued this season.

Since opening night, they have a 59.71 CF% and 63.7 xG%. They've only played three minutes together since Jan. 1.

Tatar's counting totals may be down but he's still having a great season. Given that he's meshed so well with Hischier, it's unconscionable they've only logged three minutes together since the calendar flipped to 2023. 

Another combo worth experimenting with is having Tatar on Hischier's wing and Palát on the opposite side. This is where I might be taking crazy pills because I think hell will freeze over if Ruff even considers trying this, but having Holtz on the second line with Bratt and Mercer is worth a look. 

For starters, the Devils need to be opportunistic with Hughes out, as Todd mentioned in his recap of the Kraken game. Ruff tried Mercer and Holtz with Tatar against the Kraken, but you know who could make that line even more threatening? Bratt. It's not as crazy as it seems! That keeps the Sharangovich, Haula and Zetterlund line intact, which looked good against the Kraken. 

• Palát - Hischier - Tatar

• Bratt - Mercer - Holtz

• Sharangovich - Haula - Zetterlund

• Wood - McLeod - Bastian

One last combo I wanted to touch on was possibly reuniting the Tatar, Hischier and Bratt trio. They've been one of the Devils' best lines this season, totaling a 63.03 xG% and outscoring teams 9-2 at five-on-five. They have played a measly 13 minutes together since Jan. 1, however.

Given their success, and the current top line’s struggles, it's worth giving them another look to see if that can help sparks things at even-strength. In reuniting that trio, that'd drop Palát down with Mercer and Holtz: 

• Tatar - Hischier - Bratt

• Palát - Mercer - Holtz

• Sharangovich - Haula - Zetterlund

• Wood - McLeod - Bastian

Sure, the Devils have some systemic issues to figure out. But it's clear the Palát, Hischier and Bratt trio isn't playing up to the level the Devils need from their first line; especially with Hughes out for a little bit.

Ruff needs to go back to some combos that work, like Tatar and Hischier, to help optimize his line combos so the team finds a groove at five-on-five. If the Devils don't improve their five-on-five play, they'll likely be an easy out come playoff time.

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