Could Vitek Vanecek be a target for the New Jersey Devils?
Could Vitek Vanecek be a target for the New Jersey Devils?
I looked at the case for, and against, pursuing the 26-year-old netminder.
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The New Jersey Devils will be adding at least one NHL goaltender to the roster this off-season. That much we know.
Be it injury problems, COVID, poor play, a rift with the team, or a combination of them all, Mackenzie Blackwood’s last two years have gone as poorly as possible.
Combine that with the possibility Jonathan Bernier plays little to no hockey next season – at least in 2022 – and GM Tom Fitzgerald finds himself in the same spot as the prior two summers: searching for a quality goaltender capable of playing a healthy chunk of games.
Darcy Kuemper and Ville Husso are a couple of the names most often tossed around. Understandably so; both are in the midst of very strong campaigns and, as it stands, they are scheduled to hit the free agent market.
As the playoffs continue to progress, and we get a better idea of changes teams are looking or open to make, more names will be thrown in the hat.
The latest to enter the rumor mill are Washington Capitals netminders Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek.
‘Didn’t completely rule out running it back’
“We’re going to explore…”
“We’ll talk to other teams”
Call me crazy but it sure sounds like, if possible, the Capitals want to reshuffle the deck in goal. Thus, it’s worth giving Brian MacLellan a call.
While Samsonov has the draft pedigree, it is Vanecek who should be more of interest; at least in my opinion.
The case for Vanecek
You don’t have to dig too deep to find encouraging numbers from Vanecek’s 2021-22 campaign.
The 26-year-old netminder was quietly very, very, good at 5v5. Among 69 goaltenders to log at least 500 minutes, Vanecek finished tied for 9th in save percentage and 12th in high-danger save percentage.
If we adjust the requirement to 1,000 minutes, Vanecek is tied for 7th in SV%; and the company is remarkably good.
That’s right; Vanecek posted the same 5v5 save percentage as Frederik Andersen, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Husso.
The former easily could’ve been a Vezina finalist, Vasilevskiy has long been a top-3 goaltender in the world, and the latter is a popular off-season target among fans.
Perhaps more encouraging is how Vanecek fared against high-danger shots. It wasn’t as if he just benefited from Washington’s defensive structure and inflated his stats by stopping a bunch of low-danger shots. He was excellent against Grade A looks.
He out-performed Andersen, Vasilevskiy, Juuse Saros and Connor Hellebuyck – among many others – in HD SV% at 5v5.
While Vanecek’s numbers were not as strong a season ago, they were still in line with what Kuemper and Jacob Markstrom gave their teams. He was competent.
No, he has never handled the workload of a starter. But he played 37 games in 2021 and 42 this season. That is only a handful of games away from 1A territory.
Considering the cost of acquisition last summer was a 2nd round pick from a good team (Washington), and his overall save percentage was the exact same this season as last, he could be a very reasonably priced mid-range target; with upside to be more.
The Devils wouldn’t have to trade the farm for him, they wouldn’t have to hand him a lucrative contract, he doesn’t carry much milage (or injury concerns), and he has shown – at worst – he can be effective while playing half the games.
The case against Vanecek
There is no disputing Vanecek was very good at 5v5, where most of each game is played. That’s positive.
It’s not everything, though. Other gamestates count as well; and Vanecek was much less potent in them.
Take 3v3 play, for example. Among starters, only Phillip Grubauer and Jacob Marstrom posted worse save percentages than Vanecek.
What about the penalty kill? Of the 37 goaltenders to play at least 150 minutes while shorthanded, Vanecek ranked 24th in save percentage; and 36th(!) in high-danger save percentage.
For whatever reason, my guy could turned from a beast to a pumpkin against high-quality shots when the opponents had extra time and space to work with.
The samples in those situations are much smaller so there could be noise. I’m not suggesting that we should expect Vanecek to be complete garbage at 3v3 and on the PK next season.
I’m just providing some colour as to why Vanecek, despite very good 5v5 numbers, finished a small negative in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected.
MoneyPuck had Vanecek at -5.4 through 42 appearances. That’s -0.14 per 60, putting him in the same ballpark as the likes of Carter Hart, Cam Talbot, and Alex Nedeljkovic.
Evolving-Hockey had Vanecek at -2.85 GSAx, with Kaapo Kahkonen and Linus Ullmark being the closest comparables.
Closing Thoughts
If the Devils believe Vanecek’s non-5v5 numbers are either a) noise or; b) can be improved upon, he could be an attractive and affordable solution.
Vanecek is not a UFA so he’s almost certainly not going to cost as much as Ville Husso – whose track record prior to this season is worse – or other notables. The draft pick might be worth the cap savings moving forward.
It’s just a matter of whether Fitzgerald wants to gamble on someone who should be a solid platoon goaltender (with potential to be more), or if he wants to invest heavily to get more of a sure-fire option like Kuemper.
Time will tell.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com, MoneyPuck.com, and Evolving-Hockey.com
Prescient- nice work Todd
At this point, Fitz likely wants as sure fire in goal as he can get.