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Good things are worth waiting for.
New Jersey Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald gave us another example of that on Friday. After sitting idly through the majority of the free agent ‘frenzy’, they jumped into the waters late last night and made one of the best moves of the day.
Fitzgerald gave Corey Crawford a two-year contract worth $3.9 million per season, adding a quality player (and person) while addressing a big need in the process.
I love the signing for many reasons; let’s dive into why.
On Corey Crawford, the goaltender
Crawford has been around for what feels like forever; and he’s still got it.
The 35-year-old is coming off a quietly fantastic season with the Chicago Blackhawks. He appeared in 40 games during the COVID-shortened season and played amazingly well, posting a .918 save percentage. That is several levels above league average (.905 SV%), which is impressive in itself. When you consider the team Crawford played for, what he accomplished stands out even more so.
Chicago allowed 30.22 scoring chances per 60, and 2.64 expected goals per 60, at 5v5. They ranked dead last in both categories. Accounting for all game states, they ranked 30th in chance prevention and 29th when it came to expected goals. They were an absolute disaster defensively; even worse than New Jersey.
Crawford still posted fantastic numbers. Not just on the surface, but when digging deeper.
Among the 34 most used netminders in the league, Crawford ranked tied for 8th in 5v5 save percentage – with Mackenzie Blackwood! –and 4th in terms of stopping high-danger shots.
He faced them at a much higher rate than Blackwood, if you can believe it, so he should have no problem transitioning to New Jersey. They are better defensively and, even if they weren’t, Crawford has no problem handling himself in a tough environment.
This isn’t a one year observation either. Crawford has proven it consistently.
If we zoom out and look at his numbers over the last three seasons, Crawford looks equally as good. Perhaps even more so.
From 2017-20, Crawford ranked 4th among 68(!) eligible goaltenders in high-danger save percentage. He faced more high-danger shots per 60 than all of them. It’s not like he was needed once in a while; he was constantly tested and passed with flying colours.
Quite honestly, you can make a statistical case Crawford was the best goaltender on the market. Maybe not for the long haul, but at least right now.
I wasn’t sure he’d leave Chicago, and I wasn’t sure he’d be willing to platoon on a team that isn’t a contender.
If I knew he was open to a destination like New Jersey, he would have been the top ranked goaltender on my wishlist. He is that good.
On Corey Crawford, the fit
I love it for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, Mackenzie Blackwood is still just a kid. He handled himself admirably last season and there’s every reason to believe he can be the guy moving forward. That doesn’t mean the Devils need to put the world on his shoulders from the get go.
Blackwood, like any player, will have rough patches along the way. It’s just the nature of the sport; especially at a position where every mistake is magnified.
Intentionally or not, the Devils were much too reliant on Blackwood over the last couple of years. If he was starting, they had a chance. If he was not, they might as well have forfeited the game. And that’s not an exaggeration.
C.J. Turtoro put into perspective just how badly the Devils’ needed another goaltender in a recent post here at Infernal Access. I’m going to repost the chart he made to hammer the point home.
The Devils – a team with poor defense, inconsistent scoring, and holes all throughout the lineup – were a 92-point team with Blackwood between the pipes. That’s very close to playoff caliber, if not at that level.
Without Blackwood, the goaltending was a complete disaster and they accumulated points like a team that will be in contention for the 1st overall pick. The difference was that drastic.
For the first time in years, the Devils have two very good goaltenders on the roster. If Blackwood struggles or hits a wall, the season isn’t over. They have somebody who can step in and keep the boat sailing in the right direction.
And if Blackwood just needs a night off, the Devils can comfortably give it to him. They don’t have to put a fatigued Blackwood between the pipes because he’s their only chance. They can actually give him a break; and they’ll need to.
The 2020-21 season may not be 82 games, but it will be a grind. There’s been a lot of talk about a condensed schedule. That likely means we’re heading for plenty of back-to-back situations, as well as 3-in-4s and 4-in-6s.
More than ever you’re going to need two quality goaltenders. The Devils now have two.
I think that’s extremely important; especially playing behind a young team with some holes on the blueline.
The Devils can’t play recklessly, of course, but their skill guys can play with freedom knowing that if they make a mistake and the puck goes the other way, they can probably bank on a save.
Goaltenders have a way of masking a lot of issues, and the Devils have two guys capable of doing so. Maybe they’ll be a good team next year. Maybe they won’t. But a Blackwood/Crawford tandem means they’re going to hang around in a lot of games and have a chance to win more often than not – even if they don’t deserve it.
On the financials
‘3.9 million for a backup?!?’
I’m sure there are people out there thinking that. I have no problem paying Crawford that price and think it is completely justified.
For one, he’s a starting caliber goaltender playing that role. It’s not like he’ll play every two weeks and you have to pray he doesn’t sabotage any chance of winning (like the Devils have dealt with in backups for years).
If Blackwood were to struggle, or face a long-term injury, the Devils could hand the keys to Crawford and expect positive results. That’s valuable.
So, too, is his experience. So, too, is the kind of person he is in the locker room. He checks all the boxes for the Devils.
After signing Crawford, the Devils still have $21 million in cap space. I don’t expect them to spend that much – they have an internal budget, which will likely put them in the $75M range – but there is still room for additions even after locking up Blackwood and Jesper Bratt.
Not to mention, there is always the possibility of moving Kyle Palmieri or Miles Wood, which would clear up some more wiggle room.
Point being, the Devils still have some money to plug a couple of holes. If they need more, there’s ways to make more – even on a budget.
As a side note, Crawford is pulling in $3.6 million in actual cash this season. So, the Devils are saving $300K in real dollars up front. That’s good for them.
It is also good for Crawford, who has the bigger payments deferred to a time where there is more likely to be a full season/more ticket revenue and less risk of losing money.
On the expansion impact
Quite frankly, there isn’t one. The Devils don’t ‘have’ to protect Corey Crawford next off-season – and they won’t.
I don’t think that is a big deal. While it is possible Seattle looks in that direction – Crawford is quite good, after all – I wouldn’t necessarily call it likely.
Yes, Seattle will want good goaltending so they can compete every night. But there will be lots of quality netminders to choose from. I’m not sure they’ll want to use their expansion pick on a 36-year-old with one year remaining on his contract.
They’ll likely be hoping for a solution with a little more term, rather than plucking Crawford from New Jersey and needing to fill the same hole again in a year’s time.
And if the Kraken do take Crawford, it’s not the end of the world. It would suck to lose him, of course, but Blackwood will be another year along in his development and there are always competent backups available. They could find someone.
info via NaturalStatTrick.com and PuckPedia.com
Great read! I completely agree. I was definitely shocked when I read that last night, I don't think anyone really expected the match. I'm happy though. Another great job by Fitz.
I gotta say you definitely got me on board with this signing