Breaking down Round 3 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

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After a 7-1 opening round, my picks (2-2) were a mixed bag in the second round.

In the East, I was right about the New York Islanders pulling off an upset but wrongfully predicted Boston would slip by Tampa Bay.

Out West, I was very confident in Vegas taking care of business – while the series did go the distance, Vegas was very clearly the better team throughout – but missed on my Colorado pick. I had the Avalanche winning in six games.

Below are my thoughts, and picks, for each matchup in the Conference Finals.

New York Islanders @ Tampa Bay Lightning

This should be a very interesting matchup between the Eastern Conference’s most efficient 5v5 scoring team (in the playoffs)…and the Tampa Bay Lightning.

New York enters play as the clear underdog – rightfully so given how they stack up on paper – but they are coming in at the peak of their powers.

They have controlled 55.36% of the Expected Goals since returning to play, good for 6th among all 24 teams. They lead all Eastern Conference sides in Expected Goals For per 60 and that hasn’t come at the expense of their stingy defense; they are expected to allow fewer than 2.0 goals per 60.

New York’s special teams have been as impressive as their 5v5 play. They have netted 10 power play markers and just gave up *checks notes* zero PP goals to Philadelphia over a seven-game series. Everything is a go right now.

Even still, I very much like the Lightning in this series. As well as the Islanders have played, Tampa Bay’s numbers (55.51 CF%, 57.48 xGF%, 55.36 SCF%) are still better in almost every key metric.

They’re doing a better job of controlling play, and they have more talent – at each position – to take advantage when that is the case.

Even if the skaters played dead even, I’d be picking the team with Andrei Vasilevskiy – rather than Thomas Greiss or Semyon Varlamov – back to clean up any mess made in front of him.

The Islanders are a great story but I think their Cinderella run is going to end here.

Prediction: Lightning in 6.

Dallas Stars @ Vegas Golden Knights

It’s funny how similar the two series’ are. In each Conference we have a high-octane Stanley Cup favorite taking on the scrappy defensive team that’s found a way to score goals in bunches during this post-season. I think the magic is going to run out, though – particularly for Dallas.

In New York’s case, they have out-played teams on a nightly basis. Dallas hasn’t.

They own a 48.21% Corsi For%, good for 17th among teams that returned to play. It’s not the end of the world failing to control volume if you have quality (like New York). Again, Dallas doesn’t.

The Stars own less than a 50% share of the Expected Goals. By comparison, the Vegas Golden Knights lead all playoff teams – by a significant margin – with a 64.11 xGF%. 64%! That is absolutely ludicrous.

Everybody knows about Vegas’ lethal top-6 but the 3rd line of Alex Tuch, Nicolas Roy, and Nick Cousins has quietly been spectacular. Their 5v5 metrics (64.41 CF%, and 59.15 xGF%) are as dominant as you’ll see. They are exposing the depth lines of each team they face and ensuring there is no let-up or Get Right shift for opposing teams to start gaining back traction.

All that firepower up front, combined with an excellent, mobile defense core – headlined by Shea Theodore and Nate Schmidt – makes Vegas nearly impossible to match up with.

This team really does come wave after wave and I think they’re going to be way too much for Dallas to handle.

‘You could say that about Colorado and Dallas still won!’ That’s true. But Colorado had an abundance of injuries (Joonas Donskoi, Matt Calvert, Erik Johnson, Philipp Grubauer, Pavel Francouz, etc.) that significantly ate into that depth advantage and the Stars still barely managed to advance.

I don’t think they’ll be so lucky this time around.

Prediction: Vegas in 5.

numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com