Breaking down everything Kyle Palmieri ahead of the deadline

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Kyle Palmieri is likely going to be traded in the coming weeks; as he should be.

The 30-year-old simply does not align with the team’s core group of Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Ty Smith, Alexander Holtz and Mackenzie Blackwood, among others.

By the time they’re at their best and ready to help the Devils contend, Palmieri’s value will be all but shot and he’ll be making a lot of money.

Trading him always seemed like the more reasonable, and likely, scenario given where the team is at.

With recent news that Palmieri and the Devils are “struggling” to reach common ground on an extension, a trade in the coming weeks seems like all but a formality.

Where does Palmieri slot in on a contender? Which team is the best fit? What kind of return could the Devils expect for the two-way winger?

I reached out to an NHL Front Office member to help tackle those questions.

Where does Palmieri slot in on a contender?

NHL FO: He is a 3RW for a contending team at even-strength and can play power play. If it’s a time with a clear hole at RW2 he can plug it, but I think for.a cup team they want Palmieri to be their 5th best (winger). He could be your 3rd/4th best winger if you’re deep down the middle and on D.

My take: I know Palmieri as RW3, and a team’s 5th winger, might seem like a stretch but, production wise, that’s not far off. At least at even-strength. Palmieri is tied with the likes of Travis Zajac, Charlie Coyle, Chandler Stephenson and Tyler Johnson in 5v5 points since the beginning of 2019-20.

Now, he’s been hurt by a lack of puck luck this season. That’s probably making him look worse than he is. But it’s also worth noting that line of thinking goes both ways. A big part of Palmieri’s game is his defensive value and that’s been non-existent this season. Evolving-Hockey has his even-strength defense worth -0.5 GAR through 33 games, a far cry from the +2.9 he put up last year.

I would still be very comfortable trotting out Palmieri on the 2nd line every night – say, in Toronto or Boston – but I’m not shocked by the take above. Palmieri hasn’t been the same guy as in recent years.

Which team is the best fit for Palmieri?

NHL FO: I think the New York Islanders are an exception where he can plug in on L1 and play with Barzal with Lee out. Replace him on that line. NYI is probably the best ‘team’ in the sense that everyone knows their exact job. This is where Palmieri could thrive. Can see him also fitting well with Nylander and Tavares in Toronto.

My take: The Islanders and Bruins probably make the most sense on the surface. Lou Lamoriello *loves* hard-working, gritty types like Palmieri and the Isles could really use the scoring pop with Anders Lee done for the season.

Boston also plays a structured, wear-you-down style and they generate the majority of their offense from in-zone play. Palmieri would fit in nicely on the 2nd line alongside David Krejci and, when healthy and clicking, Jake DeBrusk.

BUT I’m going to say the Toronto Maple Leafs. I suggested Palmieri might land in Toronto before the season and there has been some smoke there. The Leafs want a top-6 upgrade and I think their analytics department would be intrigued by the defensive value he’s brought over the years while consistently filling the net.

If Palmieri was willing to go there, I think they might be his best bet for a Stanley Cup. I’m sure many of you will be thinking ‘LOL LEAFS’ but their defensive play has been very good of late and not many teams could touch the following top-6:

Zach Hyman - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner

William Nylander - John Tavares - Kyle Palmieri

Would Palmieri be a target in free agency?

NHL FO: (Palmieri’s) feet are really slowing down. It’s not a problem in offensive zone but it can be a problem through the neutral zone so I would be reluctant to sign him unless it’s a real (bargain).

My take: Yeah, this is where I’m at too. I’d be willing to sign Palmieri if I was a contending team looking for that last piece and the term was relatively short. It’d have to be a team-friendly deal. I certainly wouldn’t commit to Palmieri for, say, five years, and I wouldn’t be breaking the bank to get him signed. Power forwards tend to age very poorly and, zooming out, Palmieri’s GAR has gone from +11 (fantastic) to a negative in the span of one season. I still think there’s gas in that tank, but I’m not paying to find out there’s only 1/5 in there.

What might Palmieri fetch in a trade?

NHL FO: The market this year is funny. I think a late 1st if there’s a bidding war is where he tops out. If I’m the Leafs am I offering Roberston or Liljegren for Palmieri? I don’t think he’s worth that much. I think from Toronto getting Kerfoot back and a 3rd is a realistic possibility. For the NYI maybe you take a shot on Bode Wilde. I don’t see a team giving up one of their top prospects for a pending UFA in Palmieri.

My take: As an aside, getting Kerfoot back in a trade would be hilarious considering the Devils once owned his rights and he didn’t sign. Good times, good times.

I’m not overly intrigued by any of those potential returns. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Leafs tried to move Kerfoot in a deal for an upgrade. I’m not sure the Devils should be the team to take him, though. He’s not a big-time needle mover and he turns 27 this summer. The Devils, if they did a deal like that, would essentially be taking Kerfoot just to flip him.

I think the Devils could get a little more as far as the prospect goes. Someone with a little more certainty than Wilde. But this does line up with what I expected in that Palmieri isn’t fetching a world-beating prospect, especially in a market where not many teams are even willing to add; let alone pay a premium to do it.

I could see the Devils prying a 1st; perhaps conditional on Team X winning a round or two. Otherwise, I see them getting a Janne Kuokkanen-level prospect (hopefully it works out as well as last time!) and perhaps a 2nd or 3rd depending on the value of the prospect.

numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com

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